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Rising Tide: Is Growth in Emerging Economies Good for the United States?, by Lawrence Edwards, Robert Lawrence
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In 1963, US President John F. Kennedy said that ''a rising tide lifts all the boats. And a partnership, by definition, serves both parties, without domination or unfair advantage.'' US international economic policy since World War II has been based on the premise that foreign economic growth is in America's economic, as well as political and security, self-interest. The bursting of the speculative dot.com bubble, slowing US growth, and the global financial crisis and its aftermath, however, have led to radical changes in Americans' perceptions of the benefits of global trade. Many Americans believe that trade with emerging-market economies is the most important reason for US job loss, especially in manufacturing, is detrimental to American welfare and an important source of wage inequality. Several prominent economists have reinforced these public concerns. In this study, Lawrence Edwards and Robert Z. Lawrence confront these fears through an extensive survey of the empirical literature and in depth analyses of the evidence. Their conclusions contradict several popular theories about the negative impact of US trade with developing countries. They find considerable evidence that while adjusting to foreign economic growth does present America with challenges, growth in emerging-market economies is in America's economic interest. It is hard, of course, for Americans to become used to a world in which the preponderance of economic activity is located in Asia. But one of America s great strengths is its adaptability. And if it does adapt, the American economy can be buoyed by that rising tide.
- Sales Rank: #2094992 in Books
- Published on: 2013-02-15
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: .66" h x 6.06" w x 9.02" l, .96 pounds
- Binding: Paperback
- 176 pages
Most helpful customer reviews
2 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
Surprise: American production workers do not compete with Chinese imports.
By laurens van den muyzenberg
American manufacturing companies do not compete with Chinese and other exporters from developing countries in the US market. This is the conclusion of two very competent and experienced economists. This conclusion differs from Paul Krugman and Paul Samuelson. They claimed that exports from developing countries had a negative effect on the balance of trade and employment, which appears plausible.
The authors arrived at their conclusions by going into immense detail using rigorous analytical methods. It included comparing what companies in 470 different US industry categories produced in the USA and what was imported in their fields from developing countries. They conclude that import from developing countries is not a major or significant cause in the USA of (1) high unemployment (2) lost sales of US producers at home and in their exports (3) a reduction of low skilled high level paying jobs (competition from Japan and Germany did), (4) recessions (5) an increase in economic inequality. The reason is a very simple one. The US companies are not producing in substantial volumes labor-intensive low skill products. The competitors are companies in other developed countries like Toyota and Airbus.
At one point it was thought that China was exporting a large volume of high tech products like computers and peripherals from developing countries. Detail analysis again proved that this was not the case as the high value components are produced in developed counties, with the US in the lead.
Surprisingly the US terms of trade with developing countries have been improving.
It is true that there are instances where trade with developing countries has caused displacement of jobs and depressed wages in some industries, locations and occupations. However import from developing countries is not an important cause.
The authors found that GDP/Capita is a good indicator of what a country produces. Developing counties become competitors of developing countries when their average GDP per person reaches 70% of developed countries, which according do the authors will still take more than 15 years.
Do not forget that this book is about manufacturing that represents in 2010 only 10% of employment. It shrank from 25% in 1973 t0 10% in 2010, the reasons being, productivity increases and that people are spending spent less on goods and more on services. This decline is very similar in other developed countries. Also do not forget that the importation of petroleum products is the major source of the USA negative balance of trade.
The overall goal of the USA, as the authors see it, is a transition of the US becoming a self -sustaining economy that is less reliant on government stimulus and foreign borrowing, more reliant on private activity financed by increased domestic savings. The final chapter recommends policies on how to make this transition. Restricting import from developing countries is a wrong policy.
Important conclusions!
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